报告题目：On the Link between Growth and Volatility: Evidence from China

时间：2011年12月21日，星期三，12：00-14：00

地点：明德主楼714

报告人：张宁

Abstract: Unlike the conventional wisdom that growth and volatility correlate negatively across countries, this paper finds a significant and positive growth-volatility link across Chinese provinces in the reform period. This link remains significant and positive in several robustness tests. Further analyses from disaggregate perspectives find that the output volatility is correlated with rural consumption growth and urban consumption growth negatively and positively, respectively. At the sectoral level, more volatile sectors command higher investment rate and higher value-added growth. This paper also finds that the expected volatility has positive effect on growth, while both fiscal and investment policy volatilities are significantly harmful to economic growth. However, the significances of policy volatilities vanish once expected volatility is included in the analysis. It partly confirms the analytical argument that the growth-volatility link in China is mainly driven by the positive volatility component. Moreover, a stable policy environment is vital to the economic growth of China despite a positive aggregate growth-volatility link.

报告人简介：张宁博士，先后在清华大学取得工学学士和管理学硕士学位，在香港中文大学取得经济学博士学位。曾在中国光大控股（香港）资产管理部任策略师，现就职于中国投资有限责任公司。主要研究方向为经济增长、经济波动、生产率及中国经济，在《经济研究》、《经济学季刊》等国内学术杂志发表论文10余篇，并发表英文学术论文2篇。