题目：A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE DECISIONS

时间：2010年10月28日星期四 12:00 – 14:00

地点：明德主楼610                              

报 告 人：孙伟

主要内容：The cost of nursing home care represents a substantial financial risk for older households. Yet, only 10 percent purchase long-term care insurance (LTCI), with many relying on Medicaid. Using Health and Retirement Study data, I estimate a structural model of the LTCI purchase decision. I conclude that this population has a modest preference for higher quality care and that Medicaid crowds out LTCI. Housing wealth provides self-insurance against the cost of nursing home care, so that individuals who are “house-rich cash-poor” are less likely to purchase LTCI. I also evaluate public policies designed to stimulate the take-up of LTCI. I find that a comprehensive 20 percent subsidy would increase take-up by 160 percent, but the resulting Medicaid savings would amount to only 22 percent of the subsidy cost. A targeted subsidy would be more likely to break even, but would have only a small effect on coverage. Full enforcement of Medicaid estate recovery programs would reduce Medicaid expenditure by 31 percent, but would have insignificant effect on LTCI coverage.

报告人简介：孙伟博士，中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院助理教授 。美国Boston College经济学博士、美国Bowling Green  State University经济学硕士、对外经济贸易大学金融学学士。科研方向主要着重公共经济学,金融经济学。