题目：Population Aging and China’s Social Security Reforms

时间：2014年5月28日  星期三   12:00 – 14:00

地点：明德主楼714

报告人：李时宇

摘要：China’s population aging problem is more severe than other countries because of the one-child policy adopted in the early 1980s, and the current social security system is not sustainable. An overlapping generations model is developed to analyze China’s social security reforms. It is shown that if the government does nothing to reform the system, maintaining the current replacement and contribution rates, social security debt will be explosive. Various reforms are considered, including adjusting the replacement rate while keeping the contribution rate constant, increasing the contribution rate while maintaining the current replacement rate, increasing the retirement age with the contribution rate being unchanged, increasing the retirement age with the replacement rate being unchanged, and switching to a fully-funded system by using government assets to pay the implicit social security debt. The effects of these reforms on capital accumulation and on the welfare for each generation are simulated and compared.

报告人简介：李时宇，中国人民大学财政金融学院讲师，2011年在北京大学获得博士学位，主要研究方向为公共财政、社会保障和经济增长，2009/2010年期间在美国波士顿大学交流访问。目前已经在诸如China Economic Review; Social Science Journal等期刊上发表多篇文章。