题目：公共财政、经济周期与结构性财政盈余

（Public Finances, Business Cycles and Structural Fiscal Balances）

时间：2015年10月28日  星期三     12:00 – 14:00

地点：明德主楼714

报告人： 刘凯

摘要：In this paper a new framework to analyze and estimate structural fiscal balances is proposed. The numerical solution of a DSGE model serves as part of the Kalman smoother to extract structural fiscal balances. The UK economy is taken as an example, and a setting of an integrated random walk for the underlying stochastic trends fits the data best. We find that: an expansionary monetary policy shock has a great positive short-run impact on nominal fiscal revenue, but the influence is not persistent because of the open-economy characteristic of the UK. An expansion in government spending can also increase nominal fiscal revenue to a certain degree, but the effect is not persistent as well due to the domestic and external crowd-out effects. The public finances of the UK in the post Great Recession periodare discussed. A contractionary fiscal policy, rather than an expansionary one, will benefit the economic recovery and also improve the fiscal stance. Compared to a temporary increase of the lump-sum tax, cutting the government spending is relatively more effective and it alleviates the two kinds of crowd-out effects generated by the government spending.

报告人简介：刘凯，中国人民大学经济学院助理教授，毕业于英国剑桥大学，曾在《经济研究》等期刊上发文。