题 目：Evaluating the effectiveness of the rural minimum living standard guarantee (Dibao) programme in China

时 间：2018年4月4日  星期三  12:00 – 13:30

地 点：明德主楼714

报告人：Nanak  Kakwanni

主持人：雷敬华

摘要：China’s rural minimum living standard guarantee programme (Dibao) is the largest social safety-net programme in the world. Given the scale and the popularity of rural Dibao, rigorous evaluation is needed to demonstrate the extent to which the programme meets its intended objective of reducing poverty. This paper develops new methods and uses data from the 2013 Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP2013) to examine the targeting performance of the rural Dibao programme. The paper has found that the rural Dibao programme suffers from very low targeting accuracy, high exclusion error, and inclusion error, and yields a significant negative social rate of return. It discusses possible causes and argues that the fundamental mechanism has to be redesigned to increase the effectiveness of the programme. The paper makes some recommendations to reform Dibao that will significantly improve targeting and reduce the cost of running the programme, thereby helping China to achieve its goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2020.

报告人简介：Professor Nanak Kakwani had been Visiting Scholar at the IPEA in Brasilia in 2014, (which is the think tank Institute of the Government of Brazil), working on social policies in BRICS countries. He was the Principal Researcher for one year (January 2005 to November 2006) and foundation Director/Chief Economist for two years (January 2003 to January 2006) at the UNDP’s International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth in Brasilia Brazil. Before joining IPCI, he had been Professor for 30 years at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. His research areas include poverty, inequality, pro-poor growth, taxation, public policies, human development (People’s Well-being), etc. He has published more than 100 articles in international journals (including nine papers in Econometrica) and five books, one by Cambridge University Press, one by Oxford University Press and more recently by Palgrave Macmillan. He was elected as a fellow of Australian Research Committee of Social Science. He was also awarded Mahalanobis gold medal in 1984 for outstanding contribution in quantitative economics. He is on the advisory board of the Journal of Economic Inequality. He has been Visiting Professor at many universities and consultant to the World Bank, UNDP, and the Asian Development Bank.