题目：Housing Price and Fundamentals in the Long Run – the Case of Beijing Market

时间：2015年3月11日  星期三   12:00 – 14:00

地点：明德主楼714

报告人：朱国钟

摘要：There has been a long and lively debate among both academics and practitioners whether a large run-up in house prices is a bubble. Do high price-income and pricerent ratios reflect overly optimistic beliefs and speculation or can they be justified by macroeconomic fundamentals? We quantitatively study the link between the economic fundamentals and house price under a rational general equilibrium framework. Conceptually, this framework provides a rigorous approach to estimate the fair housing value which accounts for a wide variety of slow-moving economic fundamentals such as income growth, demographic transition, migration and land supply. Based on the transition of these economic fundamentals, we develop an efficient method to compute the trajectories of equilibrium house price and rent. Applying the model to the housing market of Beijing, we find the equilibrium house price much lower than in the data unless the income level in Beijing, which we take from the National Bureau of Statistics, is seriously understated. Using a model of endogenous migration, we further show that income level of Beijing is boosted considerably by rich immigrants who may not be sampled by the income surveys. Applying the model to the city of San Francisco, we are able to capture the average growth rates of house price and rent between 1980-2013 quite well.

报告人简介：朱国钟现任光华管理学院应用经济学系助理教授，于德州大学奥斯丁校区获得经济学博士学位。他现在的学术兴趣主要在于宏观经济、财政政策、房地产经济、劳动经济、消费理论和投资理论，在Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Urban Economics, Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control 等杂志发表论文，并有多篇工作论文。