题目：Volatility and Economic Regimes: Evidence from a Large Transitional Economy

时间：2014年12月17日  星期三   12:00 – 14:00

地点：明德主楼714

报告人：王博群

摘要：A dramatic decline in aggregate output volatility in China from central planning to market-oriented reforms in the past half century is documented in this paper. The output volatility measured by the standard deviation of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the specified rolling windows declined by 73% from 1953--1977 to 1978--2008. The sharpest reduction occurred in 1978 when China began to initiate a series of market reforms. Since the inception of these reforms, the volatility continued to decline, dropping more than 30% from 1978--1994 to 1995--2008. During the planning period, the co-movements in the provincial output, which reflected the systemic risks associated with the highly centralized economic and political systems in China, were found to be the primary source of the high output volatility.

报告人简介：王博群，美国约翰·霍普金斯大学博士候选人，主要研究领域为国际金融、宏观计量、中国经济等，在Papers in Regional Science等杂志发表论文，并有多篇工作论文。